polls

  • I started reading fivethirtyeight.com several months ago, and somewhere along assumed I had already blogged it, but I haven't. It has without a doubt the best statistical analysis of presidential election polling out there, with scores of easy-to-understand graphs. For example, today's analysis shows that McCain's recent bounce has been much stronger in states he already has secured than in swing states, increasing the chance that Obama could win the electoral vote without the popular vote. (And, of course, increasing the chance that McCain could win with both.) (3) #
    9/11/2008
  • Two interesting in-depth articles from Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal: the first is an analysis of the accuracy of exit polls during this election cycle in determining the winner of popular votes (answer: not very, and they favor Obama); the second an analysis of that SurveyUSA 50-state poll from yesterday where he notes which states are toss-ups and discusses the limitations of such a poll. (0) #
    3/7/2008
  • SurveyUSA has done the first 50-state poll of the election cycle to see where the Electoral College during the national election might stand. Obama beats McCain 280-258, Clinton beats McCain 276-262. Obviously, this is a poll and the election is 8 months away, so NaCl.


    (8) #
    3/6/2008
  • Most pollsters are skipping the Nevada caucuses because they think the transient population, the newness of the early caucus date, and the nature of caucuses themselves make it too difficult to do. Having worked for a statewide campaign here, I know this to be true, but this is great: I might be able to walk into my caucus location next week without a pre-declared winner. (via political wire) (9) #
    1/11/2008
  • Once again, the always compelling electoral-vote.com comes alive to cover aggregate polling of the 2008 election season. I'm interested in how some polls may shift now that Obama/Huckabee have taken Iowa. (thx, jonmay) (27) #
    1/4/2008
  • electoral-vote.com, the most popular election web site in 2004, is back for the 2006 elections. Ah, there's something so satisfying in seeing that U.S. map again, color-coded by party. Note that it has the Nevada Senate race leaning GOP, because of a recent Zogby poll showing Jack Carter (Jimmy's son) inching up on John Ensign. (Although conventional wisdom here (which I don't put all my stock in) questions the veracity of that poll.) (9) #
    9/6/2006
  • My first campaign, and my first brush with push polling (against the campaign I'm working on, of course). Politics can get so dirty... (7) #
    3/9/2006
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