politics
Why are there no Black senators?
Nate from FiveThirtyEight.com gives a statistical explanation as to why there are no Black senators but there are 39 Black members of the House of Representatives. The superficial answer: Black congresspersons tend to be elected in Black majority districts and there are, of course, no Black majority states.
The question, of course, is why African-Americans aren't getting elected in [Black minority] districts. Racism is undoubtedly part of the answer, but it probably can't be a complete one now that the country has just elected Barack Obama to the White House.
He then goes on to make a few interesting but non-statistical guesses that have to do with political gerrymandering.
I suspect that a lot of the problem, however, is that as Congressional Districts have become more and more gerrymandered, leading to the creation of more and more majority-minority districts following the 1980 and 1990 censuses, the black political apparatus has become more and more 'ghettoized'.
Interesting how gerrymandering can affect the House and Senate so differently -- and it's not something I envision disappearing any time soon.
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Prop 8 - The Musical, starring Jack Black, Allison Janney, John C. Reilly, and many more. This is quite literally the definition of "singing to the converted" but it's actually quite succinct.
(0) # 12/3/2008
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Change.gov. Welcome to the *real* first administration of the 21st century.
(23) # 11/6/2008
President-Elect Obama
I was up at 5am yesterday and worked until 8pm in the nonpartisan Election Protection command center at the ACLU of Nevada's office, so by the time I realized that Obama had it in the bag, I was feeling rather delirious. It was a great day for American politics, only tempered by a lost wallet, now found, and lost rights in California, the recovery of which will be longer in the coming. Other post-election nuggets:
- All my hard work in Washoe County paid off, as Obama destroyed McCain in both the county and in Nevada as a whole. Alas, the local elections were more of a mixed bag given my preferences. (E.g., my state supreme court choice lost, and a really awful eminent domain initiative passed.)
- Bill Ayers gave his first interview since he became an election issue to the New Yorker, and he seems like a decent but flawed guy who was heavily caricatured.
- 2009 will be the first year in 45 years without a Dole or a Bush in elected office.
- The Marijuana Policy Project, my former employer, had a successful day winning both medical marijuana in Michigan and decriminalization in Massachusetts.
- Newsweek has an article reporting some campaign items that they couldn't reveal until now: a "foreign entity" hacked into the systems of both campaigns, Palin may've spent more money than was even originally reported on herself and her family, and violent threats to Obama increased sharply in September and October at the same time when the Palin rallies were getting scary.
I wish I lived within driving distance to D.C. for January's shindig.
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Errol Morris has a new blog post about "real people" campaign ads, which covers the history of political ads that use non-actors from a 1952 Eisenhower ad to Morris's new "People in the Middle for Obama" campaign in 2008. I like these better than his "Switch" ads for Kerry in 2004, as they have a more positive message. ("I like Obama," rather than "I don't like Bush.")
(3) # 10/29/2008
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The Salt Lake Tribune has a fascinating article about the divisions in the Mormon church as a result of their vigorous fight to pass California's Prop 8, which would end gay marriage in the state. The church and its members have already spent millions of dollars in support of the initiative, and it has become a common subject of sermons during their services. (via andrew sullivan)
(1) # 10/24/2008
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In support of Barack Obama -- and Early Voting, which starts this Saturday in Nevada -- Joanna Newsom will be giving a free concert at UNR on Monday, October 20th. I saw her excellent orchestral show in Grass Valley, CA last year, but she's great when it's just her and her harp as well.
(0) # 10/16/2008
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There's been a recent attempt by right-leaning folks to paint ACORN, a voter registration organization that focuses on low-income communities, as responsible for enacting large-scale voter fraud. While this is perhaps an attempt by the right to delegitimize a potential loss on Nov. 4th, it actually raises some interesting statistical questions about large-scale voter registration and registration fraud. Matt Yglesias begins the conversation here.
[I]f you go out and register over a million voters you’ll wind up with a lot of bad forms being submitted. But just as 30,000 is a lot of people and also only a very small fraction of one million people, when you’re talking about registering over a million new voters you’d need orders of magnitude more bad forms to constitute real evidence of a systematic fraud campaign.
The fundamental problem here is that some on the right see it as a good thing that not all eligible Americans are registered to vote. (via advodude) (30) #10/14/2008
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The New York Times has a somewhat horrifying article about what may be unintentional voter suppression on a wide scale, affecting six swing states including Nevada.
Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times... apparently the result of mistakes in the handling of the registrations and voter files as the states tried to comply with a 2002 federal law...
These errors plus overzealous voter fraud laws may lead to a frustrating election day for many. (5) #10/9/2008
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The Daily Show last night had a segment where they put a group of elderly Jewish people in a room to watch last Friday's debate and had them scream their thoughts at the TV. Now this is the kind of focus group I enjoy watching!
(6) # 9/30/2008
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Time has video clips of the 10 most memorable debate moments. It just goes to show that it's all about the flub or the one-line zing. (via political wire)
(1) # 9/26/2008
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I've resisted posting something like this, I really have, but this is just too mind-boggling. Compare and contrast: South Carolina vs. Alaska.
(24) # 9/25/2008
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Washoe County, in which I live, is under the political microscope at the moment. Sean at FiveThirtyEight.com reports that Democratic registrations may overtake Republican ones by Election Day, and the New York Times has a profile of Washoe as a swing county:
Nevada is divided in large part between rural and urban voters, newcomers versus old-timers, the contours of the political discussion formed by growth, energy and immigration. While the voters in the rural area of the state are almost certain to go for Mr. McCain, and Mr. Obama is seen as having an advantage in southern Clark County — home to Las Vegas — Washoe County is widely considered the place that could tip the state one way or the other.
(1) #9/23/2008
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A profile on Rachel Maddow, who just got her own show on MSNBC, and is one of my favorite news personalities. Watching her go head-to-head with Pat Buchanan on MSNBC has been the highlight of the Democratic convention for me.
Unlike Olbermann, Maddow plans to interview some conservative guests. But she is determined to avoid the left-right pairings that sustain much of cable news. "It creates fake balance," she says. "I'm sorry -- we're going to have a debate about whether or not the Earth is flat? It doesn't make sense to have a debate about whether offshore drilling is going to bring down gas prices. You know what? It's not. The fact that it's false ought to be reported, or you're advancing a lie."
(4) #8/27/2008
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Obama's vice presidential selection is looming, so I'm going to throw this one out there: could Richard Clarke be his dark horse pick?
Update: It turns out it's the more famous older white guy with foreign policy experience. Biden will be fun to watch in the VP debate. (5) #8/21/2008
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Barack Roll.
(4) # 8/9/2008
Edwards: A Brief Editorial
I am not upset or mad at Edwards for having the affair -- it is his business, and between him and his family. However, I am extremely pissed off at him for running for President after having the affair, particularly because infidelity issues have in the past hurt the Democratic party to the point of arguably getting Bush elected. What an egomaniacal dick, to run for president when the stakes are so high.
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Lessig: what Ted Stevens did is wrong, but it isn't that much different than the way campaign contributions work.
[W]hile it is a crime for VECO Corporation to pay to have Stevens' house renovated, there's no problem with VECO's PAC and senior executives giving Stevens' campaign many times more than that which Stevens' is then free to use to fly to a resort in Montana, or entertain senior executives at DC's most expensive restaurants.
(5) #7/31/2008
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Here's an excellent and simple graph comparing the differences between Obama's and McCain's tax proposals. Kevin Drum comments:
Bottom line: If you're really rich and think that George Bush's tax cuts for the rich didn't go nearly far enough, John McCain is your man.
(43) #6/12/2008
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Check out this video of highlights of John McCain's speech last night and the extremely negative reaction from the cable news networks, including Fox News. McCain is the master of the forced smile.
(41) # 6/4/2008
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These are all anonymous quotes from insiders of the Clinton campaign:
-Hillary assembled a team thin on presidential campaign experience that confused discipline with insularity...
There are a lot more like that in the article. It makes me feel extremely glad that this team is unlikely to be running the White House in one year's time. (3) #
-There was financial mismanagement bordering on fraud.
-Her people spent all of 2008 making lists blaming each other (but never themselves) rather than lists of solutions.5/16/2008
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Josh Marshall has a fascinating post about why Obama has done so poorly in West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and the surrounding areas:
There's been a lot of talk in this campaign about Barack Obama's problem with working class white voters or rural voters. But these claims are both inaccurate because they are incomplete. You can look at states like Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states and see the different numbers and they are all explained by one basic fact. Obama's problem isn't with white working class voters or rural voters. It's Appalachia.
The post also has a convincing map of all the counties where Clinton has won over 65% of the vote. (1) #5/13/2008
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David Kurtz over at Talking Points Memo has written an interesting post about post-presidential celebrity and democracy:
One of the trappings of the [Presidency] in this day and age is the celebrity attendant to it -- and the money-making opportunities that affords...The Clintons are taking $11.4 million made as a result of being in public office and plowing it back into retaking that office...In essence, they are using the trappings of the office once out of office to get back into office. That is the sort of self-perpetuation of power that we associate with dynasties.
(0) #5/12/2008
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A short profile on Adam Chodikoff, The Daily Show's chief researcher. He's the guy that, e.g., digs up that obscure six-year-old clip used to underscore the hypocrisy of a politician's recent statement. (via fimoculous)
(0) # 4/30/2008
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SurveyUSA has done the first 50-state poll of the election cycle to see where the Electoral College during the national election might stand. Obama beats McCain 280-258, Clinton beats McCain 276-262. Obviously, this is a poll and the election is 8 months away, so NaCl.
(8) #


3/6/2008

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