Jordan Ellenberg crunches the numbers and analyzes the probability of the Democrats regaining the House.

But before Democrats get too optimistic, they should think about the Baltimore Orioles. Like the Democratic congressional delegation, the Orioles have put up losing records for many years. And Orioles fans, like Democratic voters, can see a path to victory—if a few starting pitchers improve, if a promising rookie develops, if the scrappy second baseman regains his slugging form. ... None of these hopes are unreasonable. But it's too much to expect that they'll all come to pass.