electoral-vote.com 2006
electoral-vote.com, the most popular election web site in 2004, is back for the 2006 elections. Ah, there's something so satisfying in seeing that U.S. map again, color-coded by party. Note that it has the Nevada Senate race leaning GOP, because of a recent Zogby poll showing Jack Carter (Jimmy's son) inching up on John Ensign. (Although conventional wisdom here (which I don't put all my stock in) questions the veracity of that poll.)
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I'm suspicious of Ohio as leaning Democrat.
Why is that? Is there something you know about that specific race?
I don't much about the race in particular, but I do know that Ohio has the lowest approval rating for Bush than any other state that went for him in 2004, indicating that there could be some general Republican-hating going on there for the moment.
http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/50StatePOTUS1005SortedbyApproval.ht...
Who puts out that survey? What is their methodology? Anyone notice that presidential job approval does not equate with challenger's electoral success in the U.S. Senate? Now, perhaps conservative Ohio has shot itself in the foot by putting the anti-gay marriage legislation on referendum in previous elections--meaning that they can no longer play the gay card to scare the bible brainwashed. But the gubernatorial election (with African American Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell running for Gov. Taft's abandoned throne) might draw Republicans out of the armchairs on Election Day.
My skepticism comes not only from my personal experience with politics in Ohio, but also from the research on incumbency and campaign finance (not my field of research, mind you). DeWine has more than double the war-chest that Brown has accumulated. Just wait for the TV ads. That advantage will become clear really quickly. So in addition to the incumbency advantage, DeWine’s financial advantage is going to be a brutal yolk around Brown's neck. Plus, unlike some other races, Ohio has a tremendously large Christian coaltion in precisely those districts that are going to provide the swing votes (namely Clark and Hamilton counties—both of which voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004).
I linked to the survery, so I assume you can get that info there. I agree that presidential approval does not correspond to statewide results, but I do think it's indicative of Ohio not being similar to, say, Utah.
States whose name begins with the letter 'O' tend to vote for Democrats.
Especially those that are round on both sides and high in the middle?
By the way, thanks for posting the link to electoral-vote.com, I had forgotten about them and am glad that it's back up and running.
Monk: i'll bet you a steak the next time I see you that DeWine wins.
Not sure if I can do that -- I know nothing about the race! But we can go get steak anyway.
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